The premise behind most layoffs is straightforward. Cutting people reduces payroll, payroll is a major expense, and therefore cutting people improves the financial position of the company. On a spreadsheet, in the quarter the decision is made, this logic holds. The difficulty is that the spreadsheet captures only the most visible costs and none of the ones that arrive later.

CEOs and executive teams are operating in an environment of compounding uncertainty. Geopolitical instability is reshaping global supply chains and market access, AI technology is evolving so rapidly that strategies feel outdated before they are implemented, talent shortages persist, and cybersecurity threats escalate daily, with each breach carrying existential risk.